June 28, 2025

 

Markets experienced the best cross-asset rally in over a year. The S&P 500 surged 3.5% to a fresh record, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index gained 0.6%, Gold fell 2.9%, and Bitcoin rallied 3.5% to break back above $100K. Cooling inflation and stronger consumer sentiment helped fuel the rally, even as economic data flashed caution. Jobless claims ticked up, housing cooled, and consumer spending fell the most since January. Fed Chair Powell hinted rate cuts might’ve already arrived if not for tariff uncertainty, underscoring policymakers’ wait-and-see stance.

 

 

 

The Stock Market Makes A New All-Time High

 

 

And just like that, the S&P 500 index made a new high this week. 

Since early April, the stock market has staged a stunning rebound—defying a barrage of gloomy headlines. Investors faced warnings about “Liberation Day” tariffs and predictions of a global slowdown, but the S&P 500 has recovered from a nearly 20% nose dive and is now up over 4% half way through the year.

Most investors underestimate the stock market's resilience, because they focus on short-term volatility rather than long-term patterns. Historical data shows that despite numerous crashes, bear markets, and corrections, the S&P 500 has always recovered and reached new heights. Since 1957, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 10%. Intra-year corrections averaging 14% are normal—yet 27 of the last 35 years still ended positively.

The market's resilience is remarkable: the 2020 COVID crash recovered in just four months, while even severe bear markets like 2007-2009 eventually led to full recoveries within a few years. Investors panic during downturns, because people are wired for loss aversion, which leads many to sell at lows and miss subsequent rallies. Seven of the market's 10 best days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days, which makes reactive market timing nearly impossible. Missing just the 10 best market days over 20 years would cut returns from 9.8% to 5.6% annually. Instead of trying to time the market, focus on "time in the market." The longer you stay invested, the more compound growth works in your favor.

 

 

 

Don't Be Duped By Doomscrolling

 

 

Has World War 3 already started? A smart chicken who doubles as an energy analyst thinks so. 

According to energy expert Doomberg, the 12-Day War between Israel and Iran represents the second phase of World War III, with Ukraine serving as the opening front. Whether this description is hyperbole or an accurate depiction of reality we'll leave up to the reader. But it's important to remember that in the early days of World War II, few people noticed the cascading danger.

From a geopolitical perspective, the consequences of attacking Iran's nuclear facilities will reverberate for years and could accelerate nuclear proliferation. As Doomberg notes, this crosses "unthinkable red lines" and normalizes attacks on nuclear facilities, potentially spurring other nations to accelerate their nuclear programs. Based on his interpretation of foreign media, Doomberg views the current global situation as a global war for US dollar supremacy between the Western alliance and the BRICS countries. He argues that the UN Security Council is now irrelevant due to the circumvention of international law, and that long-range missile attacks into Russia were dangerous precedents. The Israel-Iran war, in his view, represents the second phase of this broader conflict, with geopolitical tensions continuing to simmer as China and Russia position themselves against Western financial dominance.

Doomberg estimates the equilibrium price of oil at $55 per barrel. He believes the recent ceasefire was necessary because Israel was running out of air defense missiles, and that China and Russia will rearm Iran faster than the US can resupply Israel. The oil markets efficiently priced in what he calls the "choreographed nature" of Iran's strike on US military bases. For long-term energy markets, Doomberg sees natural gas as the fuel of the future, especially for powering AI data centers. He suggests that Russia, with its vast natural gas reserves, could collaborate with China to build AI data centers in the Arctic, and that the Middle East war might spur China to finally agree on terms with Russia for the Power Siberia 2 pipeline.

On de-dollarization, Doomberg states that "all roads lead to gold". He believes that if US treasuries are no longer neutral, they can't serve as neutral reserve assets. Gold is now number two in central bank reserves, and its importance should rise as a neutral reserve that can't be seized.

 

 

 

The 2030 Longevity Inflection Point

 

 

If you're reading this and in reasonable health, you may be among the last generation to face traditional aging constraints. According to visionary entrepreneur Peter Diamandis, we're approaching what could be the most significant inflection point in human history: the ability to dramatically extend healthy human lifespan.

The convergence is remarkable. AI systems like AlphaFold are solving protein folding puzzles that stumped scientists for decades, while quantum computing will enable molecular-level biological modeling. Meanwhile, companies are developing therapies that can reverse cellular aging through epigenome manipulation—essentially turning back your biological clock by reactivating youthful gene expression patterns. Most striking is the expected timeline. Diamandis predicts that by 2030, breakthrough therapies will add 20-30 healthy years to those who make it there in relatively good physical condition. During those bonus decades, quantum computing and digital superintelligence will unlock even deeper biological mysteries.

Technology is converging to create an unprecedented opportunity for human longevity extension. The message is clear: your next five years of health preservation could be the most valuable investment you'll ever make.

 

 

 

Siemens Takes On Big Tech in the AI Arms Race

 

 

Siemens is leveraging cutting-edge AI and proprietary databases to compete with Google and Nvidia in factory automation. The German giant's ace card? They know industry, because they make things. Unlike consumer-focused AI companies relying on generic internet data, Siemens is developing an Industrial Foundation Model that "speaks the language of engineering." It processes complex industrial data including 3D models and technical specifications, delivering the engineering know-how and safety manufacturers require.

Siemens is a hybrid industrial technology company with exposure to high-growth end markets including automotive, machine building, and smart infrastructure for data centers. At their Fort Worth factory, AI already optimizes production through digital twins, QR code tracking, and robotic quality inspection. Siemens enjoys a wide economic moat due to its strong brand reputation, deep domain expertise, and high customer switching costs, especially in mission-critical industrial equipment and software. Its global service network and significant R&D investments reinforce reliability and innovation, while long product cycles and integrated solutions ensure recurring revenue and sustained market leadership.

Siemens was added to Silverlight portfolios earlier this year. At 19 times forward earnings, we think shares are undervalued based on the company's attractive growth prospects. 

 

 

 

Honoring the 20 Anniversary of Steve Jobs' Greatest Speech

 

 

In 2005, Steve Jobs faced a daunting task: delivering Stanford’s commencement address. Newly released materials, as reported by WIRED, reveal the meticulous process behind what many consider the greatest commencement speech ever. Jobs, known for his relentless pursuit of perfection, spent months wrestling with the challenge. Initially, he flailed, grappling with how to distill his life’s lessons into a concise, impactful narrative. Yet, through iterative refinement, he found clarity.

Jobs structured his speech around three stories—personal, vulnerable, and profound. He spoke of dropping out of college, his ousting from Apple, and confronting mortality after a cancer diagnosis. Each tale carried a universal truth: follow your heart, embrace setbacks, and live each day as if it’s your last.

 

 

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This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Silverlight Asset Management LLC to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Silverlight Asset Management LLC, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.​​