Starbucks Will Be Okay Without Howard Schultz
Submitted by Silverlight Asset Management, LLC on June 6th, 2018
Howard Schultz is the pied-piper of modern coffee. A pioneer who brought a fringe coffeehouse culture to the masses, convincing people the world over to pay a premium price for a premium experience. On his watch, the Starbucks franchise grew from just 11 stores to over 28,000.
Now, Schultz is stepping down as Chairman of Starbucks to pursue other interests. What does the future hold for Starbucks without Schultz at the helm?
No one can be sure, but Starbucks shareholders can derive comfort knowing there is a precedent for this sort of thing.
Here is a look at past instances when an iconic chairman departed and the subsequent stock performance. The results vary, but on average the stocks outperformed over one and three-year periods. At the very least—it's probably a fair fight from here for Starbucks shareholders.
Name / Company | Departed |
1-Year Return |
Spread vs. SPX | 3-Year Return | Spread vs. SPX |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ray Kroc / McDonald's | 1/13/1984 |
24% |
+17% | 119% | +41% |
Sam Walton / Wal-Mart | 4/5/1992 | 16% | +2% | 2% | -35% |
Jack Welch / GE | 9/7/2001 | -27% | -11% | -10% | -18% |
Bill Gates / Microsoft | 2/4/2014 | +18% | -1% | 90% | +15% |
Steve Jobs / Apple | 10/5/2011 | 73% | +43% | 94% | +10% |
Average | +10% | +10% |
The above analysis is far from exhaustive. But it's not easy to identify 'comps' for someone like Howard Schultz. He is part of a rare breed of corporate leaders who transcend the business community. The guy literally transformed society. Not many CEOs can say that.
No one will argue with a straight face that Starbucks is better off without Schultz. It’s not. As a William Blair analyst recently put it, Starbucks faces "an almost unbridgeable gap" with the departure of Schultz.
However, what the above analysis shows is that Starbucks probably won’t be lost without him. Companies persevere.
Apple was a lesser company the day after Steve Jobs died, but that didn't preclude Apple's stock from rallying 73% the following year.
Tim Cook stepped into the CEO role at Apple knowing he could not replace Jobs. Similarly, no one could replace Ray Kroc at McDonald's, or Sam Walton at Wal-Mart.
The good news is: no one has to.
A legendary CEO does not achieve their status alone. Rather, they espouse a compelling vision to rally an army around their cause. By the time a company grows to the height of a Starbucks, the legacy of the leader is well-embodied in the cultural DNA of the firm. It can degrade over time, as some would argue has occurred at GE after Jack Welch turned over the reins. But it takes time for that to happen, and it's not necessarily the norm.
Investors should evaluate Starbucks through a broader lens than management alone. The spirit of Schultz will remain. Meanwhile, other variables will likely drive the stock's trajectory.
The key going forward will be how the company executes on its expansion plans in China, where it plans to grow from 3,300 stores to 6,000 stores by 2022.
A secondary factor is U.S. comparable-store sales. Same-store traffic has basically been flat since fiscal 2017, which is a concern as the beverage segment has also been experiencing declining margins. To get back some of its domestic mojo and meet its 3-5% growth target, management is focused on improving its digital platform along with food and beverage innovation.
Starbucks shares have mightily outperformed since 2009, but alpha has been on a hiatus since 2016. Shares currently trade at 20.8 times forward earnings, well under the 5-year average of 26.3 times. That's also an 8% discount compared to its Bloomberg-defined peer group, which presently trades at 22.7 times estimated earnings. Over the last five years, Starbucks has normally traded at a 14% premium to its peers.
Bottom-line: Starbucks remains an attractive global growth story. It's coffee almost never goes on sale, but the stock is now. Howard Schultz will be missed, but the Starbucks machine he built will carry on in his absence and continue enriching shareholders for years to come.
Originally published by Forbes. Reprinted with permission.
Disclosure: I own shares of Starbucks (SBUX) in accounts which I professionally supervise. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Silverlight Asset Management LLC to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Silverlight Asset Management LLC, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.