January 18, 2025

 

The S&P 500 gained 2.9% this week as investors rejoiced over a tame CPI report. The US Aggregate Bond Index rose 1.0%, gold rallied 0.4%, and Bitcoin surged 11%. 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose 2.9%, matching forecasts. This marked a rate of change acceleration from 2.7% the previous month. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks input costs to businesses, rose 3.3%. Wall Street was very hedged going into the inflation reports. Thus, even though inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, traders covered after the prints, which led to a sharp relief rally. The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) released their Small Business Optimism Index for December, showing a jump to the highest reading since 2019.  

 

 

 

President Trump Part II

 

 

Ken Fisher likes to say that if a politician is moving their lips, they are probably lying. That's why it's important for investors to pay more attention to what politicians actually do compared to what they say. 

We are about to see what President Trump will do upon entering office for the second time. Many on Wall Street are expecting "shock and awe" in the amount of executive orders. His Day One Agenda includes reinstating Title 42 to quickly expel asylum-seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border, launching a mass deportation program, and ending birthright citizenship. Trump also plans to roll back Biden-era policies on climate and diversity, and extend his 2017 tax overhaul, lowering the corporate income tax rate to 15%. Trump has promised new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. Additionally, he aims to expand domestic energy production, and he will probably lift a ban on TikTok that went into effect this weekend. These actions reflect a blend of traditional conservative approaches and a more populist bent on trade and America's international role.

Of course, we have no idea just how many of these policies will actually make it into law. In July 2020, then President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, "As far as TikTok is concerned, we're banning them from the United States."  Like Ken Fisher says: Pay attention to what they do, not what they say. 

 

 

 

Trump Meme Coin Surges 

 

 

President-elect Donald Trump has launched a new cryptocurrency token called $TRUMP, which has taken the crypto world by storm. The meme coin, marketed with an image of Trump holding a fist up and the words "FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT," has seen its value soar from $10 to as high as $70. This surge has potentially boosted Trump's net worth significantly, with estimates suggesting he has made more than $25 billion on paper. The coin's website states that 200 million $TRUMP coins are currently available, with plans to issue 1 billion over the next three years. While some hail this move as a symbol of Trump's support for the crypto industry, others raise ethical concerns about the potential for special interests to buy influence with the president.

Until now, no politician has ever given their supporters a way to monetize that support. President Trump will likely continue to test boundaries and defy norms after taking office.  

 

 

 

A Digital Vault Protects You From Natural Disasters 

 

 

The recent Los Angeles fires taught a crucial lesson about the importance of safeguarding essential documents. As flames rapidly engulfed homes, many residents found themselves struggling to save irreplaceable paperwork. Keeping vital documents in a digital vault can prevent such heartache in the future. 

A digital vault provides secure, easily accessible storage for key items like identification documents (passports, driver’s licenses), insurance papers, financial records (bank statements, tax returns), property deeds, and family keepsakes (photos, digital wills). By digitizing these items and storing them in a secure online environment, you can ensure they’re protected from physical threats like fire, floods, and theft. Furthermore, the ease of access allows for quick retrieval during emergencies, providing peace of mind during trying times. As we face increasing natural disasters, adopting a digital vault strategy is a smart move to protect what’s most important.

Silverlight clients have free access to a digital vault. To learn more about how to use this, please contact Natalie Lueders (nlueders@silverlight.us). 

 

 

 

Inflation Perspective

 

 

Last November, voters around the world expressed their frustration over inflation by voting out incumbents. According to Matt Glassman, a senior fellow at Georgetown University's Government Affairs Institute, “It could be the fundamentals; incumbent parties around the globe of all ideologies are getting crushed right now by voter anger over post-COVID inflation.” 

The incumbents tried to sell the populace on a story that inflation was coming down. On a rate-of-change basis, it has been. But people focus more on the cumulative change, and since 2020 consumer prices are up over 20%. Here is some perspective on how the value of money has eroded over time (source: Zero HP Lovecraft). 

$100,000 now = $70,000 in 2010

$100,000 now = $56,000 in 2000

$100,000 now = $43,000 in 1990

$100,000 now = $27,000 in 1980

$100K isn't the wage it once was. Taco Bell is paying some managers $100K a year.  

 

 

 

Brain Surgeon and Son Save 5 Malibu Homes

 

 

 

 

The Los Angeles fires have inflicted a lot of hardship on Southern California residents, but there are heroic stories emerging, too. The video above describes a father and son who ignored evacuation orders, relied on their emergency preparedness training, and saved five homes in Malibu.   

 

 

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This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Silverlight Asset Management LLC to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Silverlight Asset Management LLC, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.​​